In 2019, the external situation faced by China's textile industry has become more complicated and severe, and the development pressure has increased. However, the general stable development of China's macro economy has not changed, and the domestic demand market has continued to upgrade, providing primary support for the development of the textile industry. The textile industry continued to deepen supply-side structural reforms, promote high-quality development, and strive to resolve various external risks. In the first quarter, the economic operation situation remained basically stable, and the development resilience against downside risks increased, and the pressure on the internal and external markets increased. Under the circumstance, the growth rate of production indicators such as production, efficiency and investment is in a reasonable range. The business climate is in line with expectations and the overall development is smooth.
Domestic and foreign markets are under pressure
According to the National Bureau of Statistics and the Customs Express, in the first quarter of 2019, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and needles above designated size increased by 3.3% year-on-year, which was 6.5 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year; the retail sales of online wearing goods increased by 19.1%. %, the growth rate was lower than the same period of the previous year by 14.8 percentage points, but continued to maintain a good double-digit growth rate. Export pressures have increased. In the first quarter, textile and apparel exports totaled US$56.33 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year. There were some differences in the export performance of upstream and downstream products in the industrial chain. Textile exports achieved growth. In the first quarter, exports were US$26.9 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year; apparel exports declined, and exports in the first quarter were US$29.43 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year.
The textile industry is in line with expectations, and production, investment and quality effects are generally stable.
According to the survey data of the China National Textile and Apparel Council, in the first quarter of 2019, the textile industry's prosperity index was 55, maintaining a range of expansion above 50. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the industrial added value of 34,000 textile enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.8 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, which was 2.5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of 2018. The completion of fixed asset investment in the whole industry increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 9.8 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. In the first quarter, the textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total operating income of 1,235.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The growth rate increased by 3.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the total profit reached 46.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and the growth rate was higher than the same period of the previous year. 6.1 percentage points. The operating profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 3.7%, the turnover rate of finished products was 16.5 times/year, and the total asset turnover rate was 1.2 times/year, which was roughly the same as that of the same period of last year, indicating that external pressure continued to increase. Textile enterprises rely on improved management efficiency and steadily improve their ability to resist risks.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2019, the complex and severe external environment faced by the textile industry is difficult to change completely. Various uncertain and unstable factors still exist, but positive factors are also accumulating.
On the one hand, global economic and trade growth is expected to slow down, and the demand for textile and apparel international markets will not improve significantly in the short term; the international trade environment risks will rise, and the export pressure of the textile industry will continue. There is downward pressure on the domestic macro economy. Domestic consumption hotspots are more concentrated on service-oriented and improved consumption. The textile industry has many challenges in tapping the market potential of domestic demand.
On the other hand, due to the expectation of economic slowdown, the pace of global currency liquidity contraction will slow down, and the currencies of various countries will remain moderately accommodative, which is expected to drive market confidence to rebound, and the international market demand is expected to gradually stabilize. China's macro-economy is running smoothly. The economic growth level in the first quarter is better than expected. The consumption confidence index and per capita income growth are better than the same period of the previous year, which will provide strong support for the gradual improvement of the domestic demand market. The domestic policy environment was further optimized, and the import quotas for cotton, the reduction of value-added tax, the reduction of the proportion of contributions paid by employees and social security units, the reduction of industrial electricity prices, and the targeted reductions, etc., were gradually introduced to reduce the burden on enterprises and stimulate the vitality of high-quality development. And the implementation effect will be conducive to stabilizing the macro economy and consolidating the basis for stable growth of domestic demand. The domestic market environment facing the textile industry will also stabilize.
In general, despite the complex and volatile external environment, China's textile industry still has conditions for smooth operation. The textile industry will further implement the spirit of the Party's 19th National Congress and the Central Economic Work Conference, deepen the supply-side structural reform, vigorously promote high-quality development, actively stimulate the potential of domestic demand, strive to stabilize the international market share, and strive to maintain stable and healthy development. situation.
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